The Future of Northeast Asian Countries - (4) Scanning & Current Assessment
Territorial dispute (Among Korea, Japan, China and Russia)
Korea and Japan claim that Dokdo, two islands located between the both countries, is each other's territory. Both countries present various historical records and claim ownership of the territory. Currently, Dokdo is incorporated into South Korean territory and is managed by the South Korean police.
Past history debate (Among Korea, Japan, and China)
Korea, Japan, and China have experienced frequent wars since several centuries ago. In the early 1900s, Japan dominated China and Korea by force, and in the process, the Japanese military committed enormous economic invasions and human rights violations. China and Korea are now calling for apology and compensation for Japan. However, Japan denies this.
Armistice status (between South Korea and North Korea)
The Korean War broke out in 1950, and South and North Korea agreed to a ceasefire in 1953. From then on to the present, the Korean Peninsula has been confronting militarily in the south and north of the armistice line. In reality, even if the war on the Korean Peninsula immediately recurs, it is not a strange situation at all.
The Korean War: 5 Things to Know | History
Nuclear weapon development (among North Korea, South Korea, and Japan)
North Korea has devoted enormous resources to developing nuclear weapons to strengthen its political influence in Northeast Asia. Now, North Korea is now officially recognized as a nuclear weapons state. However, such nuclear armament of North Korea may lead to successive nuclear armament of neighboring countries (both South Korea and Japan), and the risk of nuclear war in Northeast Asia may increase.
Aggressive military augmentation (South Korea and Japan)
South Korea has been investing enormous amounts of money and resources to build up military power since the last 10 years or so. This aims to contain potential enemies in North Korea and Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia. As a result, South Korea was ranked sixth in the world for military power in 2020.
Source: Beomchul, Shin. (2021). South Korea’s Military Readiness Under Moon - Korea Net Assessment 2020: Politicized Security and Unchanging Strategic Realities. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Available at: https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/03/18/south-korea-s-military-readiness-under-moon-pub-81233 [Accessed 5 Feb. 2021].
North Korea's economic struggles
North Korea's GDP ranks 124th in the world. This is due to various causes such as policy failure of the extremely closed and centralized dictatorship in North Korea and economic sanctions such as the United States.
Source: https://www.britannica.com/place/North-Korea/Economy
Chinese aid to North Korea
Since the Korean War in 1950, China has been supporting North Korea economically. This has been secretly continued even after North Korea's economic sanctions decided by the UN. Through this support, North Korea has barely been supporting the economy.
South Korean pressure from China
China is growing as a leader country in Northeast Asia. However, South Korea is opposing China through the strategic alliance with the United States. China is pressing South Korea to curtail relations with the United States in order to increase their influence in Northeast Asia.
Interdependence in trade among countries (South Korea, Japan, China)
South Korea, Japan, and China are all key trading partners in the world, and the share of intra-regional trade between the three countries is about 21.3%. This proportion increase is attributable to the rise of the Chinese economy and the increasing dependence of South Korea and Japan on China. In addition, South Korea has relied heavily on the Japanese materials/parts industry during the period of rapid growth since the 1970s. Each country signed an FTA with each other, and in November 2020, an RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) was signed in which 15 countries including South Korea, China and Japan participated. This serves to further strengthen the interdependence between countries.
Recent Important Event
North Korea Military Parade (January 14, 2021)
In January 2021, the North Korean government held a huge military parade, and the event was broadcast in real time around the world. At this event, North Korea showed more improved and modernized weapons such as SLBM(Submarine-launched ballistic missile) and new type of firearms. Neighboring countries, including South Korea, are showing great interest and concern for the weapons disclosed at the event.
S. Korean, U.S. militaries analyzing weapons displayed in massive N. Korean parade
Summit among South Korea, North Korea, and US (May 27, 2018)
In May 2018, South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean President Kim Jong-un held talks at the military demarcation line of the two countries. This was the first event that the leaders of both countries met after Kim Jong-un took over the North Korean regime in 2010. At this meeting, VIPs of both countries are known to have discussed in various fields for economic and humanitarian cooperation.
Huawei ban by US (August 13, 2018)
The U.S. banned the use of Huawei, a Chinese wireless device manufacturer, in the country. The U.S. government claimed that the embedded spy chip leaked sensitive and confidential information about the country, but many experts reported that the U.S. was a decision to contain/press China.
Japan's export restrictions to South Korea (July 1, 2019)
In July 2019, the Japanese government issued an executive order restricting the export of semiconductor and display core parts exported to South Korea. Experts interpret this decision as a decision to adversely affect South Korea's core industries. However, South Korea quickly began to produce these core parts in-house, and the effect of export restrictions was negligible.
Asset freezing of Japanese companies (May 25, 2019)
The South Korean government decided to freeze the assets of a Japanese ex-military companies at the time, which forcibly exploited Korean workers during World War II. The Japanese government is strongly opposed to this announcement and is considering various measures of retaliation.
Chinese government ban on South Korean culture (March 3, 2017)
In July 2017, the U.S. government deployed a THAAD(Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile with high-performance missile detector) within South Korea's territory to monitor North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missiles equipped with nuclear weapons. Because the radar had the ability to monitor even a small part of Chinese territory, the Chinese government was strongly opposed. In this regard, the Chinese government issued an executive order banning Chinese citizens from visiting South Korea and banning the purchase and use of South Korean products.
Issues in the History of Kimchi in China (November 28, 2020)
In 2020, a youtuber in China began claiming that China was the suspicion of kimchi. Until now, public opinion in South Korea has been largely opposed, and antipathy against China continues to increase.
Earthquake risk in Japan (February 13, 2021)
Japan is located on the border of the Eurasian continent plate and the North American continent plate. For this reason, very frequent earthquakes and volcanic activities occur in Japan. At present, experts predict that a massive earthquake will occur in the near future in Japan. Experts warn that in the event of such a disaster in Japan, enormous national damage will occur.
Tokyo will probably face a massive earthquake in the next 30 years. So, they're preparing | ABC News
See other posts:
- Introduction
- Domain description and scope of the project
- Domain map
- Scanning & Current Assessment
- Key drivers of change for the future
- Possible future scenarios
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