Can we see our future? If so, can we change the future?

Daegon Lee, Master of Science in Foresight at the University of Houston

We have control over our 'preferred future'

We are probably wondering what my future will look like. If a bright future is promised for you, would you not put any effort into it? Or, if you see a dark future ahead of you, will you give up on any efforts and despair?

Let's say you have a fragile body. Say you want to get out of this bad situation and have a healthy and strong body. If you make an effort to overcome this situation (such as exercising harder or eating better), you will be able to find health at least to some extent. However, if you do nothing, you will still be unhealthy. I just thought of our two different futures. A healthy future you, and an unhealthy future you.

Of course, you may suddenly and completely unexpectedly fall ill with an incurable disease. I don't think it's out of your control that you get an incurable disease. You don't even know if you'll get the disease in the future, or when you'll get it.

In foresight, the future in which you regain your health is called the 'preferred future'. And we consider the future in which we may become ill with an incurable disease as an 'uncertain future'. In these situations, I think it's wise to focus on what you have control over and what you prefer. Now, I would like to describe how great the results of thinking about this ‘controllable future’ and working hard to make it come true.

 

Preferred Future Impact 1: Change countries

If we think about our ‘preferred future’ and strive for it, we can completely change the rise and fall of a world. For instance, South Korea has grown from a poor country to a developed country in the past 70 years, and foresight has played a critical role in this growth.

South Korea's GDP per capita in 1960 was the lowest in the world ($67). However, one day, the president of Korea met an American futurist, Herman Kahn. He advised the president to formulate and implement a long-term national development plan. Through this, Korea built national infrastructure such as highways and water systems, and began to change the national industrial structure. In just 10 years, South Korea has succeeded in transforming from an agricultural country to an export-led, industrial country.

(Former President Chung-hee Park having a meeting with Dr. Herman Kahn)

Also, in the early 1990s, the president of South Korea met another American futurist, Elvin Toffler. He also advised Korea to invest in information technology at the national level for further development. The Korean government immediately began construction of a country-wide high-speed Internet network. And the government has started intensive investment and support for IT industry. As an example of these results, a Korean company, Samsung, was able to grow into a global leader in high-tech fields such as semiconductors, TVs, and mobile devices. As a result of these efforts and investments, South Korea is now the 10th richest country in the world.

(Former President Dae-jung Kim having a meeting with Elvin Toffler)

 

Preferred Future Impact 2: Change the organizations

So, now we're going to think in organizational units that are smaller than the state. Even for organizations such as private companies, estimating and preparing for the future is crucial. In the early 1970s, the world experienced a serious oil shock. But a British global oil company, Royal Dutch Shell, was lucky enough to see a similar future come true a few years before the oil shock. And they prepared a plan in advance on how to prepare to minimize the damage in this hypothetical crisis. As a result, when many of their competitors went bankrupt, they were able to survive in the market. There are other examples of this. René Rohrbeck, a futurist, surveyed 42 European multinationals between 2007 and 2015. In the study, the research team looked at how successful companies were compared to those who did not actively use forecasting. The research team found that the growth rates of companies that actively forecast the future were 200% higher, and their profitability was 33% higher than the average.

 

Preferred Future Impact 3: Change our personal lives

Lastly, let's think about forecasting on a smaller scale, the individual unit. Can an individual do estimating the future and trying to make the most desired future a reality? There are many such cases around us.

I started my career in 2005. One day, I happened to read Anthony Robbins' self-development book. He advised me to set my lifelong goals right now and describe my ideal future in as much detail as possible. So I imagined myself in 40, 30, 20, 10 years from now. Also I described what needs to be done to make that image come true. In that document, I imagined taking specialized classes in business school to become a senior manager in my late 30s. Then the document's existence disappeared from my mind. One day a few years later, my boss at the company suggested that I study further. I said that I wanted to study business further, and in the end I was able to attend school with the company's scholarship support. One day, years later, I found the document I had written a long time ago. And I realized that my future goals and timing that I had written down in that document had actually come true. My ‘desired future’ I thought about a long time ago implicitly influenced my actions and decision-making after that.

 

Conclusion

Forecasting is not something only professional futurists can do. Even those of you who are not professionally trained in foresight, we can do it too. Rather than accurately predicting the future, I think it is important for each of us to shape the future that we want and have the potential to come true, even if it is a rather vague future. And I think it's also important to think and realize specifically what needs to be done to make that future come true. And if you want to study a more complex future, I recommend you consider entering the world of professional foresight. Foresight still has a lot of room for growth. The field of foresight needs the attention and help of many people.