[Essay] Scenario forecasting of South and North Korea facing sudden unification
Scenario forecasting of South and North Korea facing sudden unification
1. Introduction
Korea suffered the Korean War for three years from 1950, and since then, the Korean Peninsula has been divided into South and North Korea and has existed as two de facto countries. Among them, South Korea has been pursuing continuous industrial and economic development with the help of the United Nations and the United States since the end of the war, and as of 2020, South Korea has become a developed country with per capita GDP reaching $31,000.[1] On the other hand, North Korea has built a socialist state system with the help of the former Soviet Union and China, but now North Korea is a one-man dictatorship centered on Kim Jong-un. In 2020, North Korea's GDP per capita is only $1,700,[2] which is going through a very difficult time economically because North Korea has thoroughly shut off the entire country from the outside and is subject to global sanctions for its unreasonable development of nuclear weapons. [3] Nevertheless, North Korea has not given up on its continued development of nuclear weapons, and neighboring countries are strongly dissatisfied with North Korea's actions. Moreover, major intelligence agencies and media outlets around the world are speculating that there is a high possibility that the health of North Korea's supreme leader, Kim Jong-un, has recently occurred.[4] Also, many sources have reported that many of North Korea's elite power groups have strong dissatisfaction with Kim Jong-un's one-man dictatorship, and as a result, internal coups have been frequently attempted.[5] Fortunately, none of these attempts to overthrow the regime seem to have been successful so far. Given these intelligences, experts clearly agree that North Korea is currently in a very precarious situation.
In this paper, I would like to set up a hypothetical situation in which South and North Korea agree to unification to overcome this precarious situation. And the two countries want to set up a situation in which the border (demilitarized zone) between North and South Korea is removed without any preparation for unification. Then, I set out three scenarios of rapid social change that could occur within the Korean Peninsula in these sudden and unprepared circumstances. Considering the actual possibility of each scenario and the stable sustainability of each scenario, I argue that the scenario in which a new North Korean regime emerges and establishes an independent state is most likely to be realized even if South and North Korea decide to unify. I cited Walt Whitman Rostow's economic growth stage theory, Vilfredo Pareto's elite cycle theory, Ibn Khaldun's social cycle theory, and Karl Marx's social theory for the analysis of this paper. I also referred to recent examples of several countries that were in a similar situation to the scenarios I set up. Finally, this thesis will consider only the internal situation of South and North Korea, and adjust the scope of the issue by excluding external factors (interested countries, nuclear weapons development issues, sudden natural disasters and changes in the natural environment, etc.) from consideration.
2. Derivation of predictable scenarios
Until now, many experts in Korean Peninsula and international relations have studied various possible scenarios in the event of a sudden change in North Korea.
Je Seong-ho argues that if North Korea collapses due to internal factors, the entire country may fall into anarchy due to a popular uprising, or a long-term civil war may occur between many armed groups.[6] Park Dong-hyeong predicted that if North Korea suddenly fell into chaos, the causes would be political unrest, state anarchy due to riots or popular uprisings, civil war by the military/elite, or coup d'état.[7] Jeong Jae-wook argues that the sudden change in North Korea is highly likely to be triggered by a military coup or a popular uprising.[8]
Also, we can find similar cases in other countries except North Korea in the countries where the Jasmine Revolution occurred in North Africa and the Middle East. When comparing the cases of the Jasmine Revolutionary countries with the current situation in North Korea, a possible scenario in North Korea is a peaceful regime change, the outbreak of civil war immediately after the reunification of South and North Korea, and the establishment of a new regime in North Korea by a new power other than Kim Jong-un.[9]
Therefore, I define three scenarios as hypotheses in my paper by synthesizing the claims of the existing experts above.
Scenario 1: South and North Korea become a single country without major chaos or problems.
Scenario 2: After the reunification of South and North Korea, a prolonged civil war breaks out on the Korean Peninsula, causing great damage to both South and North Korea.
Scenario 3: A new political leader, not Kim Jong-un, takes over in North Korea, and North Korea becomes independent as a new country.
From now on, I will analyze each scenario through various theoretical foundations and past cases.
3. First scenario: North Korea is absorbed into South Korea and united into a single country
“Fictional Situation: One day in the spring of 2022, the South Korean National Intelligence Service and the US CIA receive an unusual intelligence report from North Korea. According to the report, North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un died suddenly, and his aides lost the will to run the country any longer. They formally ask the South Korean government for unification by absorption.”
Since the Korean War armistice in 1953, many peoples in South and North Korea have longed for the reunification of the two countries. However, in this scenario, the two countries are unprepared for a sudden unification. Realistically, the probability that this scenario will actually happen is very low, and even if the scenario becomes a reality, the possibility that the situation will continue to be stable is also very low.
Currently, there is a very large gap between South Korea and North Korea in terms of social and economic aspects. From an economic point of view, South Korea's per capita GDP is 23 times that of North Korea. The main reason for this huge difference is that South Korea has accumulated an enormous industrial base and technology, while North Koreans have very poor information technology gaps and industrial expertise compared to South Koreans. Considering that 98.45% of the South Korean population can attend higher education institutions while in North Korea, only 26.83 of the population can enroll in higher education institutions, it is easy to guess the cause of this economic disparity. [10][11] According to Rostow's theory of stages of economic growth, in order to stably integrate two countries with significantly different stages of economic growth, the economic growth stage of a country with a low economic growth stage must be raised dramatically in a short period of time. [12] In reality, however, the gap between South and North Korea is so large that it is impossible for North Korea to raise it to the level of South Korea or its marginal level in a short period of time.
As a similar example, Germany met abrupt reunification in the early 1990s. At that time, East Germany's GDP was only 1/3 of West Germany's, and to overcome this economic difference, West Germany had to spend about 20 trillion euros (3 trillion dollars) in unification costs.[13] On the other hand, since South Korea's current GDP is 23 times that of North Korea's, the actual cost of unification is expected to be higher than that of Germany when South and North Korea are combined.
On the other hand, compared to South Korea, North Korea has very abundant underground resources.[14] (See Figure ###) If South and North Korea suddenly unify, it is highly likely that a fight will arise between South Korea's large-scale capitalist forces and North Korea's large-scale regional landlords. And if these conflicts intensify, it is highly likely that the situation will escalate into a national civil war. In fact, Yemen, located in the Middle East, is a resource-rich country with diverse and enormous amounts of resources such as gold, silver, and natural gas. Those who had been divided into North Yemen and South Yemen decided to unify in the early 1990s, but they did not have detailed and detailed preparations for unification. Eventually, the country plunged into serious economic and political turmoil, and a prolonged civil war plunged it into what is now one of the poorest countries in the world.[15]
4. Second Scenario: A unified Korea plunges into a serious civil war
“Fictional Situation: Shortly after the sudden reunification of South and North Korea, various armed groups emerged on the Korean Peninsula. They have a variety of purposes, such as occupying interests dispersed in various regions of the Korean Peninsula, seeking independence, or seizing power as a whole.”
The Korean Peninsula is likely to be plunged into civil war as a result of the first scenario discussed above. Also, even without considering the first scenario, experts confirm that there are many opposing forces in North Korea trying to contain or eliminate the dictator Kim Jong-un, and they are looking for opportunities to seize supreme power.
For whatever reason, once civil war breaks out on the Korean Peninsula, the entire region will be in a very unstable state within a short period of time. As anxiety grows throughout society, the number of armed groups is likely to grow over time. And ordinary citizens who do not participate in these armed forces will suffer the damage from social unrest, and they will eventually become war refugees on a large scale. Huge refugee camps will be formed on the borders of South Korea, China, and Russia facing North Korea, and numerous boat people will try to flow into neighboring countries through the sea. However, none of these neighboring countries will actively accept refugees. These hypothetical situations are still taking place all over the world today. For example, in Burkina Faso in West Africa, a huge number of refugees have occurred due to the civil war, their conflicts are still unresolved, and the vast majority of people are suffering from shortages of supplies and various infectious diseases in poor refugee camps. [16]
However, in this chaotic situation, there is a possibility that a new elite group will emerge in North Korea. According to Pareto's elite theory, the elites who hold power in the state tend to cycle among groups with different tendencies.[17] In fact, the elite, led by Kim Jong-un, who currently holds power in North Korea, can be classified as a lion-shaped elite with a strong tendency to maintain the current power. However, in the chaos after the collapse of the Kim Jong-un regime, it is highly likely that a fox-type elite group that mediates various groups and seeks exquisite unity instead of strong control will emerge. Due to their resourcefulness, the chaos on the Korean Peninsula will encounter a new phase.
Thus, while the likelihood of this scenario occurring is very high, it is rather unlikely that this scenario will last for a long time.
5 Third Scenario: A new regime in North Korea is established and the national foundation is established
“Fictional Situation: In the midst of a civil war between various armed groups, several groups began to seek peace while expanding their power through alliances with each other. Instead of subjugating the other side by force, these forces use negotiation and compromise strategies to obtain as much advantage as possible between the other side and themselves. Foreign intelligence agencies named them ‘new fox forces’.”
If the 'new fox force' gets an opportunity to seize power in the civil war that occurred in the second scenario described above or in the anarchy caused by the sudden collapse of the Kim Jong-un regime, North Korean society will have a chance to regain stability, and the South Korean government and neighboring countries will be very pleased with this situation, which serves as a signal for stability in Northeast Asia. However, the new “new fox force” in North Korea, with a weak power base, can perceive all neighboring powers, including South Korea, as enemies that can seriously threaten their survival. According to Khaldun's 'social cycle theory', North Korea in the current scenario is in a situation in which scattered small forces or individuals must join forces to form a group for mutual safety.[18] They should form a group through mutual cooperation as much as possible and establish a national leadership/power system. If these steps are successfully completed, North Korea could enter a new cycle of state formation.
On the other hand, the 'new fox force' will unite the surrounding powers, and at the same time strive to stabilize the people's hearts and build a new social system. They are highly likely to inherit the socio-economic system to which the North Koreans belonged. The proletarian class emerging in Karl Marx's theory can be regarded as the inhabitants of North Korea, and now they are a force that must cooperate to build a new society.[19] Now, the 'new fox force' has secured a social cause to mobilize residents for social restoration in order to stabilize society.
The South Korean government is relieved that the commotion and civil war in North Korea are quickly stabilizing. And they recognize the fact that the ‘new fox force’ played a decisive role in the reconstruction of social stability. The South Korean government appreciates the new regime in North Korea for playing a key role in stabilizing Northeast Asia, and agrees to keep the two countries independent. Now, South and North Korea will start official trade. South Korea will receive enormous underground resources and economical labor from North Korea, and North Korea will receive technical support from South Korea to quickly restore social infrastructure and to leap to the upper stage of Rostow's economic growth stage.
After all, the possibility that the third scenario can actually occur in the real world is high, and the possibility that this scenario will develop continuously and stably is also high. I believe that this scenario is most likely to become a reality on the Korean Peninsula.
6. Conclusion
The three scenarios I covered earlier can occur one after the other, but they can also occur separately.
In the first scenario, where two countries with different social systems are abruptly united, the cultural and economic differences between the two countries are too great. Moreover, in the midst of social chaos, it is highly likely that a large number of local forces will emerge, which may lead to more serious divisions within the country. This scenario does not need to be analyzed through existing social theories, but given the results of two recent similar cases (Germany and Yemen), it gives us very strong implications. Therefore, this scenario can never have a happy ending. That is why the two Koreas are making great efforts to prevent this scenario from becoming a reality.
In the second scenario of civil war on the Korean Peninsula, not only will there be a huge number of refugees across the Korean Peninsula, but also massive social infrastructure will be destroyed. However, ideally, the “fox-shaped force” that emerges after the disappearance of the Kim Jong-un regime, the “lion-shaped leader,” will seek ways to form a coalition among civil war forces. However, in reality, the South Korean government has more superior military power than the North, so it is highly likely that the South Korean army will subdue the civil war forces. In addition, since South Korea plays a very important role in the global industrial supply chain, neighboring countries will never leave South Korea's various industrial/production facilities paralyzed due to civil war. In fact, these neighboring countries are highly likely to arbitrate between civil war forces or to send military forces to the Korean Peninsula to subdue civil war forces. In fact, when a civil war (Korean War) broke out on the Korean Peninsula in 1950, considering the history of 21 UN member states providing military aid to Korea, a similar situation can be sufficiently reproduced even if a new civil war scenario occurs.[20] Therefore, if the second scenario occurs on the Korean Peninsula, the chaotic situation could end in a short period of time.
In the third scenario, South and North Korea will each seek ways to coexist as independent states. This scenario is not only the most ideal for the current situation on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia, but it is also the scenario that South and North Korea are exploring in the real world.
However, this essay has several limitations. First, it did not take into account the aforementioned global political dynamics with neighboring countries on the Korean Peninsula. In fact, China is trying to absorb neighboring countries such as Hong Kong and Taiwan, and North Korea is very dependent on China. In fact, if South and North Korea suddenly decide to unify or if an unstable situation such as a civil war occurs on the Korean Peninsula, it is certain that China and the United States will intervene very actively to control the situation on the Korean Peninsula. Therefore, before the three scenarios mentioned above occur, the South and North Korean governments as well as various armed groups will closely consult with neighboring countries. Second, North Korea currently possesses a large amount of nuclear weapons, and these nuclear weapons can be a strong risk factor that can lead to a situation that no one can foresee in the event of unification with South Korea or unpredictable factors such as civil war.
Reference:
[1] Worldbank 2021, ‘GDP per capita (current US$) - Korea, Rep.’, viewed 1 December 2021, < https://data.worldbank.org/share/widget?indicators=NY.GDP.PCAP.CD&locations=KR>.
[2] The Heritage Foundation 2021, ‘Economic Freedom – North Korea’, viewed 1 December 2021, <https://www.heritage.org/index/country/northkorea>.
[3] Michelle Nichols, 2021, ‘North Korea developing nuclear, missile programs in 2021 -U.N. report', The Reuters, 7 August, viewed 1 November 2021, < https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-developing-nuclear-missile-programs-2021-un-report-2021-08-06/>.
[4] Carrington Clarke and Mitchell Denman Woolnough, 2021, ‘North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's health is the biggest threat to his power — and his sister's only shot at succession', ABC News, 14 Mar, viewed 1 November 2021, <https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-14/kim-jong-uns-health-is-the-biggest-threat-to-his-power/13239460>.
[5] Adam Rawnsley, 2017, ‘The many failed attempts to kill the leaders of North Korea', Business Insider, 9 July, viewed 1 November 2021, < https://www.businessinsider.com/the-many-failed-attempts-to-kill-the-leaders-of-north-korea-2017-7>.
[6] Je Seong-ho, 2004, ‘A sudden change in North Korea and South Korea’s response: Prepare for the worst-case scenario such as North Korean collapse and large-scale defection’, Weekly Chosun, vol. 1826, pp. 184.
[7] Park Dong-hyung, 2009, 'A study on the possibility of a sudden change in North Korea', Strategic Studies, vol. 49, pp. 37-62.
[8] Jae-Wook Jung, 2012, 'Prospects of Military Intervention by Responsibility for Protection (R2P) for Rapid Change in North Korea: Focusing on Libya and Syria', National Defense Research, vol. 55, pp. 143.
[9] Lee Dae-sung, 2017, 'North Korea Sudden Change Scenario 1: Focusing on Comparison between Jasmine Revolutionary Countries and North Korea', Journal of Convergence Security, vol. 17, pp. 63-66.
[10] Times higher education 2021, ‘Study in South Korea’, viewed 1 December 2021, <https://www.timeshighereducation.com/student/where-to-study/study-in-korea-republic>.
[11] Times higher education 2021, ‘Study in North Korea’, viewed 1 December 2021, <https://www.timeshighereducation.com/student/where-to-study/study-in-korea-democratic-peoples-republic>.
[12] Trevor Noble, 2000, 'Rostow: the stages of economic growth’ in Evolutionary and New-Evolutionary Theories: Necessity and Possibility, Social theory and social change, Palgrave, New York, USA, pp. 65-70.
[13] Deutsche Welle, 2015, ‘How much did reunification cost?', Deutsche Welle, 29 September, viewed 1 December 2021, <https://www.dw.com/en/how-much-did-reunification-cost/av-18749903>.
[14] Bae-ho Hahn, 2021, ‘North Korea – Resource and Power’, Britannica, viewed 1 December 2021, <https://www.britannica.com/place/North-Korea/Resources-and-power>.
[15] BBC, 2021, ‘Yemen crisis: Why is there a war?', BBC, 2 November, viewed 1 December 2021, <https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423>.
[16] Alexandra Lamarche, 2021, ‘Atrocities and Displacement in Burkina Faso', Refugees International, 5 May, viewed 1 December 2021, <https://www.refugeesinternational.org/reports/2021/5/5/atrocities-and-displacement-in-burkina-faso>.
[17] Trevor Noble, 2000, 'Pareto: rational and non-rational action’ in Reactionary Theories: The Loss of Community: The Persistence of Elites, Palgrave, New York, USA, pp. 108-114.
[18] Khaldun, I. 2015. The Muqaddimah: An Introduction to History. Princeton Classics.
[19] Trevor Noble, 2000, Theories of Revolutionary Change: Marx and Contradiction, Palgrave, New York, USA, pp. 71-100.
[20] Jiyul Kim & Sheila Miyoshi Jager, 2020, ‘The “Greater” UN Coalition during the Korean War', Wilson Center, 26 May, viewed 1 December 2021, <https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/greater-un-coalition-during-korean-war>.
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