The Future of Northeast Asian Countries - (5) Key drivers of change for the future

 



Key Drivers of Future Change

Our future does not come from nothing. The future is created by the various forces existing in the world forming various dynamics.


Driver #1: Territorial destruction by devastating disasters


The topographic structure of Northeast Asia surrounding the Korean Peninsula is very unstable, and experts warn that the probability of a super-volcano occurring in North Korea within 30 years is 99%, and that the probability of a magnitude 9.1 earthquake in Japan is more than 70%. In the event of such a catastrophic disaster, each country will suffer enormous damage due to severe land destruction, and even in the case of North Korea, the government can be overthrown.

Input

  • Potential active volcanoes (in North Korea, Japan, and China)
  • Earthquakes and Tsunamis (around Pacific Fire Ring Area)
  • Super typhoons
  • Aging nuclear power plants


Driver #2: Military conflict due to territorial dispute or political action


There have been frequent disputes between South Korea, North Korea, China, Japan, and the United States over the past few centuries, and now countries have defined each other as potential enemies and have established defense strategies against military provocations. In addition, there are frequent local wars between countries at present, and there is always the possibility that these disputes could spread to all-out war.

Input

  • Belligerent or hostile governments
  • Defense companies (for asymmetric nuclear and conventional weapons)
  • Weapon buying and trading dealers


Driver #3: Crude oil supply for national energy production


Since South Korea, North Korea and Japan do not have their own oil fields, they import all of crude oil, which is the most important energy source for their national energy production, from abroad. Therefore, various preventive measures must be taken to prevent disruption in crude oil imports and disruption of the national infrastructure.

Input

  • Crude oil exporting countries
  • Crude oil transport infrastructures (such as multinational pipelines, crude oil carriers)
  • Crude oil production and refining facilities
  • Overseas crude oil transport route safety (Persian Gulf-Indian Ocean-Malacca Strait-South China Sea-East China Sea)
  • Power generation and power infrastructure


Driver #4: Global Supply Chain for foreign trade and total sales of the country


Most Northeast Asian countries (South Korea, Japan, China, and the United States) all play a pivotal role in industries around the world, and each country maintains interdependent relationships through supply chains. Therefore, in order for all of them to continue to thrive, the supply chain must be kept safe and robust.

Input

  • Local and multinational companies
  • Customs and customs Agreement
  • Production facility/infrastructure
  • Logistics facility/infrastructure


Driver #5: Population declining due to declining births and aging


Japan, South Korea and China have recently encountered a problem of declining fertility rates, and the average age is rapidly aging. This could lead to a decrease in national vitality and a decrease in the number of population participating in economic activities, resulting in a weakening of the overall national competitiveness.

Input

  • Childbirth avoidance phenomenon
  • Increased life expectancy
  • Medical technology improvement


Driver #6: Economic Crisis by economic retaliation between countries and incorrect economic policies


Most of the Northeast Asian countries have huge and robust domestic markets, but they are also a global top pier trading powerhouse. Therefore, if the country cannot withstand the economic shocks that occur inside or outside the country, the leadership of Northeast Asia can be lost to neighboring countries.

Input

  • Sufficient foreign currency reserves
  • The ability of the government to establish (agile and accurate) economic policy
  • Sustainable and competitive industry structure possessed by the country


  Among the drivers of change for the future defined above, I have selected the drivers that need to be looked at most deeply to see our future. Our future will be determined decisively by drivers who do not know what will happen in the future at this point. That's why I picked the most important and uncertain of the six drivers. As a result, I have determined that 'Crude Oil Supply' and 'Global Supply Chain' are key actors that can significantly change the future.

  In the next step, I have imagined four scenarios that could be realized in the future depending on two key drivers using 2 X 2 matrics.



See other posts:

  1. Introduction
  2. Domain description and scope of the project
  3. Domain map
  4. Scanning & Current Assessment
  5. Key drivers of change for the future
  6. Possible future scenarios

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