[Review] What is The Singularity? by Vernor Vinge
What is the main point(s) of the reading?
In the not-too-distant future, we will soon see the birth of beings that surpass human intelligence. (In 1993, the author predicted it would appear around mid-2020.)
The author refers to two pathways through which future changes and singularities occur. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Intelligence Amplification (IA).
The first path (AI) will be a machine with a superhuman intelligence system that surpasses human intelligence. In fact, as hardware continues to develop, the intelligence level of machines will surpass that of humans at some point. Among the various living things that exist on Earth, human intelligence and abilities have increased exponentially, and the gap with the rest of life has widened over time. And at some point in the future, machines that have been so advanced may no longer need humans for their survival and development. Perhaps we think that the current pace of development is not fast enough. However, this rate of development accelerates in an instant and may overtake humans at a moment we do not know.
As machines replace human tasks, humans will be able to focus on higher-order tasks, freeing them from lower-level mechanical/repetitive tasks. This newly educated/trained group will be able to survive as the world's elite. And, perhaps, if machines, far ahead of humans, take over the world, humans will become pets or locked up in asylum.
And the author argues that these changes and singularities will surely come true due to the innate competitiveness and desire for technology that humans have.
The second path is Intelligence Amplification, where humans become superhumans by combining the abilities of computers with human intelligence through various methods. It could be developing a way for machines and humans to work together, developing a means for humans and machines to communicate effectively, or developing a way to combine a human body with a machine. However, these attempts can create a gap between elites who expand their intellectual/physical abilities through machines and those who do not.
Then, the author raises doubts whether all problems will be solved and happiness will come if the advancement of machines can make people comfortable or immortal. If our life span is thousands of years, a day may be meaningless. When humans become part of a machine, the desire to become a better being or to find an ego may disappear. A whole new ethical system may be needed in a world where the way we look and think is completely different.
What is the support (evidence) provided in the reading that the author’s point is valid?
The author published this article in 1993, a period when the development of machines and computers was minimal. Nevertheless, the author offers some very meaningful insights. When looking at the literature referenced by the author, I could see that he was inspired by various fields such as anthropology, biological engineering, computer engineering, and mechanical engineering.
How else does the author’s point appear in historical or contemporary social examples?
I think we can anticipate rapid human changes that may occur in the coming singularity in the future by looking back on how humans responded to a period of great civilizational change in human history, and why they survived and were eliminated.
When humans appeared on Earth, they were very fragile beings within the ecosystem. On the other hand, there were many predators around, and humans were afraid of them, so they lived in caves or worshiped them as gods. Literally, predators were the object of fear and reverence for humans. But over time, humans learned how to use tools, and the animals around them became food for survival from fear. Humans have also domesticated these animals and used them as labor for farming. I think it is natural for the author to think of the machine of the future as something that can overwhelm humans or cooperate with humans.
Ever since humans learned how to craft farm implements and weapons from bronze in the Stone Age, humanity has been divided into elites with powerful metal tools and weapons and losers who ignore them. In fact, most of these losers are extinct on Earth. This pattern has been repeated every time humanity invents disruptive technology. When humans invented writing, those who learned it were able to exchange more abundant information or pass it on to their descendants, and the accumulation of this knowledge accelerated, enabling mankind to achieve an exponential rate of development. Even in some areas, learning to write has been banned except for a few who understand writing in order to maintain social dominance.
What part of the theory doesn't make sense or might even be wrong?
However, there is no evidence that similar events in history will produce similar results in the future. Because every time a disruptive technology emerges, the ripple effect is incomparable to previous innovations. Perhaps (to use your wildest imagination) the Earth has been ruled by several races (such as dinosaurs), and has repeatedly appeared, prospered, and destroyed. Rapid development may be a savage destruction for our human species, but it may also be the basis for a new race to rule the planet.
What does this theory assume that distinguishes it from other theories?
I have come across a lot of articles and content that started with the assumption that humans are the creators of technology. In fact, I think that many utopian future images and sci-fi stories were born because of this ‘human = god’ assumption. However, the author seems to have taken another leap from the simple assumption that ‘human beings are the creators of technology, so they can create technology, which is their creature, but they can control or subdue technology if they wish’.
In past history, humans have dominated the environment through technology and have become the supreme rulers of the earth. However, as time goes by, the potential and power of technology is growing, and the author recognizes that these technologies have the power to overwhelm human existence. In fact, in 1945 the United States bombed Japan with an atomic bomb, and we witnessed catastrophic destruction in a short period of time by man-made tools. I believe that this event was a very important moment that brought to mind the possibility that the formidable technology that may occur in our future can destroy us. And I believe that the author wrote the article with these possibilities as a basic assumption.
Original Article:
Vernor Vinge
Department of Mathematical Sciences
San Diego State University
(c) 1993 by Vernor Vinge
(This article may be reproduced for noncommercial purposes if it is copied in its entirety, including this notice.)
The original version of this article was presented at the VISION-21 Symposium sponsored by NASA Lewis Research Center and the Ohio Aerospace Institute, March 30-31, 1993. A slightly changed version appeared in the Winter 1993 issue of Whole Earth Review.
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