[Review] Technological Progress and Potential Future Risks

Technological Progress and Potential Future Risks

Darrell M. West

Brookings Institution, Washington D. C., USA

Original Article URL

https://www.bbvaopenmind.com/en/articles/technological-progress-and-potential-future-risks/

What is the main point(s) of the reading?

In recent years, robotics, artificial intelligence, and machine learning technologies are rapidly developing, and these technologies are beginning to be widely applied and used in almost all areas. This is because not only the development and stabilization of simple technology, but also the decrease in the cost of using the technology. In fact, we experience robots delivering food directly to the table in restaurants, or drones delivering delivery boxes home (although still limited to some areas and short distances). Also, in warehouses, robots are replacing workers with forklifts to sort things out. why? Because the collectives of technology are more accurate and faster than humans. Not only that. Machines evolved from being used for simple industrial work, and creative activities such as jazz improvisation, music composing, painting, and drama scenarios began to become possible. Now people have reached the stage of playing music with machines. In terms of knowledge, artificial intelligence has risen to the level of reading expertise and generating high-level knowledge or replacing complex human decision-making.

[Food serving robot, Source: mk.co.kr]

As technology increases, many companies in the business sector are looking for ways to make a lot of money with fewer people. The phenomenon of these technologies replacing labor is resulting in the middle class losing their jobs or reducing their incomes. This phenomenon is conspicuously occurring in the manufacturing sector. Also, agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting sectors are beginning to decline as machines replace humans. On the other hand, with the advent of new technologies, things that were previously impossible are made possible, and new jobs are being created for people. New jobs are created in health care or social support fields, accounting for one-third of all new jobs. In addition, new jobs are being created in business areas such as professional services, construction, leisure and hospitality. Separately, recreation therapists, mechanic supervisors, emergency management officers, mental health social workers, etc. are very unlikely to be computerized and are expected to be negligible.

Over time, technology will take over tasks that many people used to do, working 24/7, and companies that produce or provide services will benefit from reduced labor costs in the short term. But instead, many people (at least in the majority of blue-collar jobs) will lose their jobs or have their incomes reduced, and consumers' purchasing power will decrease as their mass unemployment or declining disposable incomes will decrease. In the end, there is a possibility that the economy will stagnate as market demand decreases. Moreover, these culled people will encounter two fork in the road. They will either receive special skills or new education and create new values in a new work environment, or they will fall into hell without receiving such education. However, whatever scenario is realized, the gap between those who get on the socially running train and those who don't will gradually widen, and the problem of social unemployment will become more serious than it is now.

People who have succeeded in improving their productivity with the help of technology will no longer need the long working hours they do today. Instead, they will be able to devote much of their time to education, volunteering and community development, and for them, public policies are beginning to shift towards encouraging new lifestyles and lifestyles. In the future, this public policy direction will be further accelerated. At the same time, on the other hand, society will see a new subclass forming. If the company reduces the number of people hired, the number of full-time workers will decrease, and the number of people receiving benefits such as pensions, health care and insurance will decrease.

Therefore, the government should consider a new wealth distribution policy. The system should be able to provide health care to the newly emerging lower classes, and the system should be improved to provide more opportunities for lifelong learning and vocational retraining. Also, basically, adults should be given the time and financial support for lifelong continuous learning.

How else does the author’s point appear in historical or contemporary social examples?

The author points out that the technological advances that are taking place around the world right now can benefit us, but conversely, technology can cause economic downturns. This point can be quite persuasive if we look back on the causes of the Great Depression that occurred in the 1930s.

After the first commercial oil development in the United States began in 1859, crude oil production in the United States increased explosively from about 1920. However, demand did not increase that much. During this period, the rapid development of internal combustion engine technology began to increase the supply of automobiles, but automobile manufacturers poured excessive products into the market for limited demand. I could find here a similarity between the chain reaction (Technology development → Production efficiency increase → Concentration of added value to a few including entrepreneurs → Insignificant demand increase (on the other hand) → Liquidity problems in the market → The Great Depression) that occurred in the 1930s and the situation that the author points out in the future.

Therefore, we must remember that as a trade-off between the efficiency and value that arises from the advancement of technology and the application of the technology to industries, counteractions such as a decrease in the unemployment rate, a decrease in the disposable income and purchasing power of consumers, and a decrease in market demand occur. . And to minimize these side effects, the author points out that re-education and redeployment of workers who are at risk of social exclusion are necessary, and I agree with that.

What part of the theory doesn't make sense or might even be wrong?

However, I think that more realistic and concrete considerations about the operation of the re-education program pointed out by the author are necessary. In fact, most of the people who lose their jobs due to automation are likely to have been engaged in low value-added work areas such as simple/repetitive tasks, and it is also highly likely that they did not receive higher education or specialized technical training from the beginning. In reality, the national education system operated in most countries has a basic education curriculum for cultivating basic learning abilities and a higher education curriculum system for cultivating skills in the technical field. However, it is necessary to carefully examine whether new technologies and new technologies sufficiently cover the current pace of social change, which is rapidly emerging.

Looking at the current situation alone, due to the advent of technology and changes in the business environment, those who did not receive sufficient education and depend on simple technology for their livelihood among those who were engaged in past technology and occupations would be particularly vulnerable to survival. People from this social class may be in a state of lack of basic learning ability due to lack of basic education. Therefore, I have doubts as to whether the educational effect will be satisfactory even if a vocational re-education program is operated for them. Therefore, in the education system of the future, the focus should be on the direction that can sufficiently secure the learning ability of basic people, and the education authorities should place a large weight on this initial education in the overall educational curriculum.