Daegon's Foresight

The Future of Northeast Asian Countries This series of posts is part of a Foresight hands-on project I did within my Master of Science in Foresight course at the University of Houston. The overall story of this series is as follows. Introduction Domain description and scope of the project Domain map Scanning & Current Assessment Key drivers of change for the future Possible future scenarios

Title  The Future of Northeast Asian Countries Sub Title Korea's Direction to Secure an Advantageous Position in Competition in Northeast Asian Countries Domain Definition At least three countries are located within the Northeast Asian region. These countries have been in fierce competition since thousands of years ago. In fact, none of these countries have ever been a permanent winner, and none have always been losers. Because of this fierce competition, most of the countries in the region had to be very belligerent and strong. This competition will continue in the future as well. The present winners and losers in this area may not be valid in the future. In addition, the current country-specific relationship and ecosystem structure will also change. A wide variety of influencing factors and interests will affect these future changes. Therefore, this project aims to establish scenarios of the future Northeast Asia from the perspective of South Korea and to think about countermeasu...

Domain Map  What are the detailed considerations for the range of dates covered in the subject of this project? Step 1: Brainstorming with mindmap Northeast Asia is currently one of the most competitive regions on the planet. In fact, most of the countries in the region (China, South Korea, North Korea, and Japan) are among the world's top 10 economic and military powers. These countries have been competing fiercely for thousands of years, each of which had to be very aggressive and strong in order to survive. In order for these countries to become leaders in Northeast Asia, they had to overwhelm their opponents in various fields, not just military power. And competition in these various fields will continue in the future, and the country that wins this competition will become the future ruler of Northeast Asia. Countries in Northeast Asia have had active [CULTURAL] exchanges for a long time. They have shared a script/language based on Chinese characters and a religious culture bas...

Current hot topics from scanning Territorial dispute (Among Korea, Japan, China and Russia) Korea and Japan claim that Dokdo, two islands located between the both countries, is each other's territory. Both countries present various historical records and claim ownership of the territory. Currently, Dokdo is incorporated into South Korean territory and is managed by the South Korean police. Source: Christina, Lai. (2020). South Korea’s and Taiwan’s Territorial Disputes with Japan, 1990s to 2018. Asian Survey, Volume60(3), p.583-606. Past history debate (Among Korea, Japan, and China) Korea, Japan, and China have experienced frequent wars since several centuries ago. In the early 1900s, Japan dominated China and Korea by force, and in the process, the Japanese military committed enormous economic invasions and human rights violations. China and Korea are now calling for apology and compensation for Japan. However, Japan denies this. Source: Robert_E_Kelly. (2014). Japan-ROK relations...

  Key Drivers of Future Change Our future does not come from nothing. The future is created by the various forces existing in the world forming various dynamics. Driver #1: Territorial destruction by devastating disasters The topographic structure of Northeast Asia surrounding the Korean Peninsula is very unstable, and experts warn that the probability of a super-volcano occurring in North Korea within 30 years is 99%, and that the probability of a magnitude 9.1 earthquake in Japan is more than 70%. In the event of such a catastrophic disaster, each country will suffer enormous damage due to severe land destruction, and even in the case of North Korea, the government can be overthrown. Input Potential active volcanoes (in North Korea, Japan, and China) Earthquakes and Tsunamis (around Pacific Fire Ring Area) Super typhoons Aging nuclear power plants Driver #2: Military conflict due to territorial dispute or political action There have been frequent disputes between South Korea, N...

Possible future scenarios Now, we will look at four future scenarios, focusing on the key drivers that can influence the future defined above. The appearance of each future scenario and the drivers that can make these scenarios a reality are as follows. Future Scenario #1: Everyone is happy. Except for the environment. Everything goes well.   South Korea and Japan are receiving crude oil for their energy production along routes through the Middle East, South China Sea and East China Sea. China is also receiving a stable supply of crude oil through domestic oil fields and overseas routes.    Since China, Korea, and Japan are all highly dependent on foreign trade, their economies will continue to grow stably if the current stable global supply chain is maintained.   Since most countries in Northeast Asia reliably depend on crude oil for energy production, the willingness to develop alternative or clean energy source is low. Therefore, carbon dioxide emissions never dec...