Daegon's Foresight

Scenario forecasting of South and North Korea facing sudden unification Daegon Lee, Master of Science in Foresight at the University of Houston 1. Introduction Korea suffered the Korean War for three years from 1950, and since then, the Korean Peninsula has been divided into South and North Korea and has existed as two de facto countries. Among them, South Korea has been pursuing continuous industrial and economic development with the help of the United Nations and the United States since the end of the war, and as of 2020, South Korea has become a developed country with per capita GDP reaching $31,000.[1] On the other hand, North Korea has built a socialist state system with the help of the former Soviet Union and China, but now North Korea is a one-man dictatorship centered on Kim Jong-un. In 2020, North Korea's GDP per capita is only $1,700,[2] which is going through a very difficult time economically because North Korea has thoroughly shut off the entire country from the outsid...

The Social Seeds of Sharing Economy and Subscription Economy Do you prefer to buy record CDs or LPs from Tower Records near your home to listen to the latest music at home? If so, you are most likely an older generation. Do you search for artists on Spotify and stream music to listen to the latest albums from your favorite musicians? If so, you are most likely a young generation living in 2021. [1] Just over a decade ago, buying and owning almost all goods was the only way to use them. But over time, we started to pay more for things to ‘use’ than to ‘own’. Now, the center of the market is moving rapidly from an ownership-based economy to a subscription and sharing-based economy. Many people think that the ideas of genius entrepreneurs with some creative business acumen played a decisive role in creating this new market. In this essay, however, I would like to argue that the recent emergence of the expanding subscription and sharing economy is the inevitable result of a new generation ...

Bringing Darwin into the social sciences and the humanities:  cultural evolution and its philosophical implications  by Stefaan Blancke & Gilles Denis Original Source:  https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40656-018-0195-0   What is the main point(s) of the reading/theory? In this paper, the author deals with the fact that various schools have recently referred to the idea of biological evolution to advance the study of human cultural evolution. Indeed, the authors say that it is worth harnessing the biological evolution of organisms for us to understand human cultural evolution and derive valuable insights. However, the author explains throughout this paper that there is a lot of room for discussion and research in various academic/scientific fields about how to graft the thought of biological evolution into the thought of cultural evolution.   When Charles Darwin published his theory of evolution in the 19th century, some scholars thought tha...

The Muqaddimah, an introduction of history by Ibn Khaldun What is the main point(s) of the reading/theory? In this article, the author explains that royal powers have cycles in which they rise and fall, and the whole cycle has several distinct stages. According to the author's explanation, at each stage, individuals and groups have certain desires and psychological states, and the kingship passes to the next stage according to the result. Also, as a rule, royal power naturally decays after a certain period and generation, and the next royal power retakes or takes over. In our history, these cycles occur repeatedly and form constant cycles. The approximate life cycle of a dynasty can be defined as: In the early stages, people form groups to protect each other from external enemies or dangers. As each group cooperates with each other, a subordinate relationship is naturally formed for each individual/group. The hierarchical order formed in this initial stage is formed for the purpose...

The Homeownership Obsession How buying homes became a part of the American dream — and also a nightmare. By Katy Kelleher Illustration by Kelly Abeln Source: CITYSCAPENOV. 13, 2019 Original Article URL: https://www.curbed.com/article/why-buy-house-homeownership-history.html What is the main point(s) of the reading/theory? What is the evidence supplied by the author(s) that the theory is valid? If I could define this article in one sentence, it would be something like this: "As society and people's lifestyles have changed, the way people view homes has changed, and as a result, people in the United States are changing their preferences for real estate and how they buy it." In the past, for people, a home was the basis for the family's survival, coexistence, and prosperity. All human relationships and social life have been designed and operated around the home. Owning a house meant that we had the least amount of security, which gave us the driving force to move forward...

Technological Progress and Potential Future Risks Darrell M. West Brookings Institution, Washington D. C., USA Original Article URL https://www.bbvaopenmind.com/en/articles/technological-progress-and-potential-future-risks/ What is the main point(s) of the reading? In recent years, robotics, artificial intelligence, and machine learning technologies are rapidly developing, and these technologies are beginning to be widely applied and used in almost all areas. This is because not only the development and stabilization of simple technology, but also the decrease in the cost of using the technology. In fact, we experience robots delivering food directly to the table in restaurants, or drones delivering delivery boxes home (although still limited to some areas and short distances). Also, in warehouses, robots are replacing workers with forklifts to sort things out. why? Because the collectives of technology are more accurate and faster than humans. Not only that. Machines evolved from bein...

What is the main point(s) of the reading? In the not-too-distant future, we will soon see the birth of beings that surpass human intelligence. (In 1993, the author predicted it would appear around mid-2020.) The author refers to two pathways through which future changes and singularities occur. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Intelligence Amplification (IA). The first path (AI) will be a machine with a superhuman intelligence system that surpasses human intelligence. In fact, as hardware continues to develop, the intelligence level of machines will surpass that of humans at some point. Among the various living things that exist on Earth, human intelligence and abilities have increased exponentially, and the gap with the rest of life has widened over time. And at some point in the future, machines that have been so advanced may no longer need humans for their survival and development. Perhaps we think that the current pace of development is not fast enough. However, this rate of develo...

Tradition and Modernity - Misplaced Polarities in the Study of Social Change Joseph R. Gusfield Original Article URL https://www.jstor.org/stable/2775860 What is the main point(s) of the reading/theory? What is the evidence that the theory is valid?   Many people think that the opposite of tradition is modernity. However, the author, Joseph R. Gusfield, disputes this view. According to him, people tend to think of traditions as static, normatively relevant, and structurally homogeneous. On the other hand, modernity is considered by people to be effective and practical for almost all cultures. In other words, many people have the following basic assumptions: “The existing institutions and values ​​that are an important part of the tradition hinder change and hinder modernization.”   However, the author argues that tradition and modernity are complementary and can be applied very differently depending on the applicable environment. In fact, this article states that Max Weber's t...